Murphy was deeper than you guessed

By Dave English

“It is found that anything that can go wrong at sea generally does go wrong sooner or later.”

This was written by Alfred Holt in 1877, in an engineering report on using steam engines at sea. The phrase has become known as ‘Murphy’s Law’ for reasons unclear. But the original report is deeper and more insightful than I ever would have guessed. The same paragraph also says,

“Sufficient stress can hardly be laid on the advantages of simplicity.”

“The human factor cannot be safely neglected in planning machinery.”

“It is almost as bad to have too many parts as too few.”

A century before Perrow’s ‘normal accidents’, 70 years before ergonomics and aviation human factors, we already knew these truths. Simplicity. Design for the human. Eventually everything will break. Perhaps now it’s time to take his words to heart?

Holt, A. (1878). Review of the Progress of Steam Shipping during the last Quarter of a Century, Minutes of Proceedings of the Institution of Civil Engineers, Vol. LI, Session 1877–78—Part I. (November 13, 1877 session, published 1878)
Holt, A. (1878). Review of the Progress of Steam Shipping during the last Quarter of a Century, Minutes of Proceedings of the Institution of Civil Engineers, Vol. LI, Session 1877–78—Part I. (November 13, 1877 session, published 1878)