Am I a good pilot?

I think I’m a good pilot. Above average, anyway. For sure.

Over 17,000 hours, 5 type ratings, published scientific research into pilot behavior, on and on. I work at it, every flight. Well, most every flight.

But a paper recently published in Psychological Science: Journal of the Association for Psychological Science (I’m not a nerd, but I am a subscriber) has me worried. It’s titled When knowledge knows no bounds: Self-perceived expertise predicts claims of impossible knowledge. The authors found that “people overclaim [knowledge] to the extent that they perceive their personal expertise favorably.” People that think they are experts, “overestimate their knowledge, including overestimating on concepts, events and people that do not exist and cannot be known.”

Clearly this applies to a lot of talking heads on TV, and a lot of teenagers talking about cool music … and maybe just maybe, pilots.

Best of the best, tip of the spear. (Top Gun, 1986)
Best of the best, tip of the spear. (Top Gun, 1986)

The researchers note in their discussion of the research:

Our work suggests that the seemingly straightforward task of judging one’s knowledge may not be so simple, particularly for individuals who believe they have a relatively high level of knowledge to begin with.

We don’t know what we don’t know. This could be very bad in a airplane cockpit. This effect has actually been studied extensively. A great online article by one of the paper’s authors for non-psychologists – We Are All Confident Idiots – has links to fun examples, like TV clips of Jimmy Kimmel asking pedestrians about hot new bands (that don’t exist).

We don’t just pretend to others we know more than we do, we actually fool ourselves. We don’t know what we don’t know. But the more stuff on a subject we do know, the worse our estimation about what things we don’t know becomes. Yikes. Are you really ready for a system malfunction? Or engine failure? How do you know?

What’s the solution? I think it’s the classic mindset of Beginners Mind – the right attitude of a child learning. Absorbing, accepting, always in touch with the wondrous new. Keep studying. Keep an open mind. Listen to your co-pilot, your wife, the little voice that says ‘are you really sure?’.

This mindset will help you become a great pilot. Like me!

 

The menace to understanding [is] not so much ignorance as the illusion of knowledge.

Daniel J Boorstin

Flight controls free and correct?

You have a religion that says if I want to live, I’m going to run the checklist.

Robert Hulse

Last week the NTSB released lots of details on a fatal accident that will keep lawyers and human factors academics busy for years. It involves rich high-profile (newspaper publisher) passengers, an iconic Gulfstream IV jet, the failure of a basic airplane safety system and the repeated failure of basic airmanship. Maybe the best account of this two-factor crash is the online piece Deadly Failure On The Runway by McCoy and Purcell of the Philadelphia Inquirer. Fascinating reading. (The NTSB press release is also online.)

The human factors engineering factor is the failure of the gust lock system (that holds the elevators against wind damage while parked) fail-safe setting to prevent significant power lever positioning. It allowed takeoff power with the lock engaged. Seems like this basic failure has a long back-story involving design, incremental changes, similarity standards, and FAA certification. The article covers these details.

The human factors psychology factor is the failure of the pilots to do a control check before applying takeoff power. We’ve all made slips and errors. But what is truly worrying is that the NTSB supplies compelling evidence that this fundamental preflight check, common to all types of aircraft and operations, was routinely ignored by this experienced (18,000 and 10,000 hours total time) crew.

Analysis of data from the quick access recorder showed that out of the previous 175 takeoffs only two complete and 16 partial control checks were performed. Two full flight control checks in 176 flights?! This is a failure of basic airmanship. The NTSB states that the “flight crew’s habitual noncompliance with checklists was a contributing factor to the accident.”

There are four broad reasons why pilots don’t comply with standard operating procedures (see An empirically derived taxonomy of pilot violation behavior by English (yes me) & Branaghan). But nothing short of being shot at as you taxi justifies not checking the flight controls before taking off. It’s quicker to not do a control check on taxi out, slicker, cooler maybe for some. But it is stupid.

If you’re acting that way, you are just fooling yourself.

Robert Sumwalt, NTSB Board Member.

The failure of the gust lock system is disturbing. I think it shows that pilot-proof needs to be like idiot-proof — but double strength.

But the repeated failure to do control checks? That’s pathetic.

Airmanship requires discipline. Sometimes a lot, sometimes just a little. Don’t crash a perfectly good airplane because you failed to do a simple flight control check.

Credit: NTSB
Credit: NTSB

 (Jan 2017 Update: The NBAA followed the NTSB’s recommendation and conducted a large FOQA study. The results are eye-opening.)

It’s Not About Split-Second Skills

You never know when it will happen.
It could be your first solo.
It could be after 42 years of flying.
As Captain Gann titled a book: Fate is the Hunter.
Best be ready.
BA Captain Chris Henkey was.

BA 777 LAS

The press has praised his ‘split-second’ skills in aborting the takeoff on the runway. But I think the more praiseworthy airmanship is measured in long seconds not fractional millisomethings. All airline pilots practice rejecting takeoffs, and there is little decision making ‘process’ when an engine quits. Good stick and (lots of) rudder skills to decelerate straight ahead. But what was telling was the 15 seconds after they radioed,

“Speedbird 2276 heavy stopping.”

There was silence on the radio. Nothing seemed to be happening while the flames and smoke really started to build. I guess they were running a checklist. Engine fire or failure on ground or somesuch. Methodically doing the right thing. Then,

“Speedbird Mayday Mayday. Speedbird 2276 request fire services.”

And then another 30 seconds goes by. THIRTY SECONDS. I’m guessing now they are on the evacuation checklist.

“Speedbird 2276 heavy, we are evacuating on the runway. We have a fire, repeat, we are evacuating.”

It’s easy to go too fast, to rush, to hurry, to expedite, to panic. There’s a fire! That’s very bad. Seen it in the simulator. The right way is slowly and carefully. And then, engines shut down, flight attendants prepared, give the evacuation signal.

The display of master airmanship here wasn’t a split-second decision. It was the opposite. It was taking the time not to rush while under intense pressure. It was running the checklists, talking to the crew, assessing the situation, and methodically calling for the evacuation.

That cleared up, we can go back to making fun of the passengers jumping down slides with their bags …

 

No perfect flight

I’ve spent six months in airliner jumpseats observing flight crews, recording their threat and error management behavior during three separate Line Operations Safety Assessments (LOSA). And I never saw a perfect flight.

There is no such thing. I watched some master aviators come close, but we all can do more, do better. I’ve become resigned to the idea that I’m not perfect. In reviewing these hundreds of hours aloft by high-time professional crews, it’s clear that no one ever has a perfect flight.

I just found a great explanation of not only that idea, but the bigger idea that expecting perfection is bad. In this 3-minute video Goldie Hawn talks about a third-grade dance recital and the lasting lessons of a teacher asking for ‘perfect’.

Credit: Oprah Master Class
Credit: Oprah Master Class

“Even today, I don’t like anything perfect. It’s sort of [like] being encaged with a concept. Living in fear of not being perfect is something that actually can destabilize us and narrow our scope of life experience. The idea that we walk around with the idea of perfection? Nothing is perfect.”

So let’s get out there and fly a not perfect flight!